Did "Reform Resistance" council candidates hold their base?

Holy Moses!  

You know that in order to get on November's ballot, ward candidates had to meet a minimum number of petitions signed by registered voters living in each's respective ward. Further, incumbents have the built-in advantage of knowing their base of support, cultivated from one (or more) terms of municipal service; first-timers don't.

So, it's not rocket science that candidates will hit up their most loyal supporters for signatures; incumbents know who these people are.  Hence in my view, petition signatories reflect a candidate's most ardent supporters--their base.

What is interesting this election cycle is that with a split reform coalition, what has happened to reform's one-time unified base?  

Has the 2017 departure of Jen Giattino, Tiffanie Fisher and Peter Cunningham from Reform to the self-titled, "Reform Resistance" and their subsequent political coalition with Dark Siders Ruben Ramos and Michael DeFusco diminished their support?

Have they expanded it?

And now that the "Reform Resistors" have proven their resistance to clean government by running for re-election with Ramos and DeFusco under the same political strategist/public relations/campaign management team, has that eroded their base?

REFORM RESISTANCE LOGO

credit: Reform Resistance official website  (hee hee)

GA reviewed the petitions for all the candidates. The findings were interesting. A few to note...  

  

Among Candidate Fisher supporters: activist David A. Liebler, one-time council candidates Bonnie Murray and Laura Miani, HoLa Board president Barbara Martinez.  

  

In the 6th ward, candidate Frank Rosner appears to have taken a bite out of Giattino's base.  CHOMP.

In the 5th, candidate Nicola Maganuco petition signatories included activist Perry Belfiore and NHSA Commissioner Kurt Gardiner, while first-timer Tim Crowell got the full Giattino for Mayor lineup.  Outgoing 5th Ward Councilman Cunningham also seems to have delivered support from Fox Hill Gardens.    

Other: Candidate Ron Bautista has drawn truly diverse support from all political factions, while  Candidate Russo has held his Church Towers base, and got a petition signed by Raia trial witness, Michael Holmes (who has immunity from prosecution through a plea deal).  

GA'S OPINION

If petition signatories are a predictor of where a candidate is drawing support, it is my analysis that the past two years of "reform-resistance" have neither diminished nor grown their base of support from 2017.  

I mean, loyalists who followed the 2017 "Reform Resistance" lead by Giattino, Fisher and Cunningham do not appear to be have been repelled by their coalition with VBM harvesters and pay-to-players.  This may explain why "Reform Resistance" candidates continue to deny (improbably) that they are one slate with Ramos and DeFusco, even while all represented by the same Vision Media team.

On the flip side, the Reform support for  Reform-Resistance candidates Fisher and Giattino appears to be stagnant.  Fisher has added support of anti-Zimmer activists and anti-Reform candidates, Giattino appears to have lost ground to Frank Rosner.  

Of course, the campaigns are just starting; we'll see if current alignments hold up. Because if the Dark Side campaign gets nasty, one can hope there's an exodus to the Light.