UPDATED: New Day: preliminary analysis

Update
Here are the actual totals with VBMs. The earlier County totals did not include VBMs for all candidates.

Ravi                 4973  33.0%
DeFusco          4441  29.5% 
Romano           2760  18.0%
Giattino           2508   16.5%
Nason                 232    1.5% 
Bautista              201    1.5%

Total vote          15,115 

______________________________

How does "Mayor-elect Bhalla" sound to you?

Damn, that's sweet.  GA was not expecting Bhalla- or anyone to 'win' last night.  I thought we were screwed-and we almost were.  What happened?

Well, until the actual vote counts by ward/district become available (which include VBMs) GA can only surmise based on what is known, and on campaign sources.

Here is what we know: voter turnout in Hoboken was huge.

HOBOKEN VOTER TURNOUT
For perspective, North Bergen's population is 58,000, Union City's is 70,000, Bayonne's is 66,000. Comparatively, our city of 50,000 residents.  Even Jersey City- with a population about 5 times that of Hoboken's turned out 2.8 times as many voters as Hoboken!

Okay, so we start with great Hoboken turnout, in spite of some rain.

Mike DeFusco did well on the machines, city-wide. Very well.   The totals below include VBMs- (except for Romano- an error) DeFusco lags behind Ravi by which puts him 663 votes.

And that is why GA believes that the race was called for Bhalla last night: because there were not enough uncounted VBMs to put DeFusco over the top.

If it were even close, one assumes DeFusco would have challenged the results.

ROMANO SHORT-CIRCUITS DEFUSCO VBM HARVEST?
Here's where it gets murky- and funny.  Remember this?

When the above sign appeared on HHA grounds in October, GA contacted DeFusco strategist, Perry Belfiore. 

"Is this a joke?" I asked him.

"No," Perry replied.  "Reports from 4th ward workers indicates workers from Romano campaign masquerading as DeFusco supporters are purloining VBMs from otherwise DeFusco supporters.  Individuals who were with Ramos historically now working for Romano are sowing confusion with the electorate."

Fast forward to last night, when the results came in. GA heard from a campaign source:

"DeFusco only got about 300 VBMs the rest went to Stick."

"The rest"?  Well... guess what, people.  

GA just received the VBM totals, which confirm that Romano kneecapped DeFusco!

Romano-506

DeFusco-325

Bhalla-192

Giattino-94

So, even if all of Romano's VBMs went to DeFusco, Bhalla still would have won, and that is why the election was called last night, and results were not challenged.

GA believes that Romano's VBM crop of 506 votes, most likely knocked out Bhalla's council at Large candidate, John Allen.  The difference between Vanessa Falco (3,506) and  John Allen (3,391) was only 115 votes.  

Of course, now the City Council has to deal with Vanessa Falco, who we may safely assume wouldn't be there if there hadn't been two reform tickets... and speaking of the Giattino ticket...

GIATTINO COMES IN 3RD PLACE IN HER OWN WARD
GA has confirmed that Ravi Bhalla won the 6th Ward.  Mike DeFusco placed 2nd and...

Jen Giattino came in 3rd place in her own ward.

GA obtained machine results for 6-2 and 6-7.

Nope, the 6th ward rejected the "Reform Resistance" and shockingly supported DeFusco over Giattino. 

I'm not surprised that Bhalla won the 6th ward-  it's a Zimmer stronghold, and Giattino challenged Zimmer's candidate. Other factors: playing politics with Zimmer's SUEZ renegotiated contract,  attacking Bhalla as a "national candidate", vacating her seat to seek a higher position while criticizing Bhalla for doing so. 

I do think folks are happy with Giattino as a Councilwoman. 

But, I do think folks were offended by her choice to split Reform and jeopardize the progress of the past 8 years, including eliminating corruption at City Hall.  Jen's candidacy risked letting the wolves back in.   But you know, those are my thoughts. 

RAVI WINS 2ND AND 5TH WARDS

Again, Bhalla swept in Reform strongholds. Defusco came in 2nd place. 

Giattino came in 3rd place in the 2nd and 5th Wards. 

In the "Reform Resistance" against Mayor Zimmer and her choice for successor, the "Resistance" lost big. 

GIATTINO FINISHES IN 4TH PLACE

This just  in:

County numbers are missing Romano's VBMs. He had 506 so his vote total was 2760.  Jen's is 2424, so she finished 4th.

Stick beat Giattino by 336 votes.

That's it for now until the data comes in...