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| Bhalla & slate meeting the peeps last week |
THE BHALLA POLL
EXCLUSIVE: GA has (finally) reached the Bhalla campaign for comment on a tip that came in early today. The campaign called the tip "accurate" but declined to say more.
It's a two-person race between Anthony and Ravi. Ravi is the frontrunner but not by much. Its virtually even. Jen and Mike are single digits. Beth's poll numbers are similar. Also had Ravi in first place. Not by much.Wow. GA's not surprised about Stick Romano, but Jen...? Her campaign best do polling, as they assuredly will reject these findings.
THE ROMANO POLL
Romano polled on the weekend of July 9. GA was told that DeFusco polled "at the bottom"- that's all. My source would not tell me anything else except that one of our Reform candidates "polled stronger than the other."
This just in... GA was told that Stick and Ravi were "4 points apart" at the top, and was given one highly redacted page from Romano's poll.. My source would not provide numbers for Stick, Ravi or Jen, but confirmed Ravi's relative strength over Jen Giattino.
MISC. CAMPAIGN NEWS
Speaking of Stick Romano's campaign, GA hears that he'll be announcing a running mate next week, and it's a "young lady." Stop me... somebody... please...
And on Washington Street this afternoon, spotted "outside Mike's campaign headquarters... a lot of guys stopping folks to tell them how to get rid of Trump..."
Hmmm. What can that mean?
One more thing: it looks like Jen Giattino's campaign may announce a "giant" surprise soon...
Stay tuned.
Wow. This irrefutable evidence.
ReplyDeleteCan we get real numbers and not just percentages?
ReplyDeleteAs you should know .. a percentage means nothing ; unless you have all the data available to the public .. all of this is useless in practical terms . Thank you
I would love real numbers. If I get em, you will. Your guy, DeFusco should do another poll, don't know why he hasn't. Without polling a campaign has blinders on. This early poll sets a baseline.
DeletePercentages don't mean "nothing" but there is always a margin of error. I'm not a pollster so ask someone who knows. I believe Ravi and Stick are polling within the margin of error.
You mean Ravi's campaign shared the inside tip that Ravi's the front runner?! Wow, real shocker! No seriously? I mean - you can't be serious? Why would someone's campaign leak that their candidate is in the lead? There's no way that a campaign would leak something that wasn't true. Oh never, never, never. AND they said that Romano is VERY close behind....so, you mean like every person that if Ravi loses his campaign wants us all to know that it's Jen's fault? I mean, this is the most unusual thing a campaign has ever done. WOW!
ReplyDeleteNo, I am not saying who my multiple sources (5) were for this article. You may not like the message, but please don't shoot the messenger. Polling is something Jen should be doing, not attacking other people's results. Ravi invited your campaign to submit their own questions, either they dropped the ball or weren't interested. Who's to blame? Kick and scream, doesn't change the fact. Three polls are showing the same result. Do your own.
DeleteNow GA, you know in order to do a poll you have to have money and organization. It's not nice to taunt! ;-P
DeleteWow, GA - don't you know the real story of the "Ravi invited your campaign to submit their own questions..."? Are you misrepresenting or is Ravi's campaign - shall we say - not sharing the whole story? Now, if I were to take a guess....
DeleteBy the way, it's Jen's campaign, not mine. I'm just a citizen that cares about the town and the community.
Instead of dropping a teaser, do tell the "real" story. As I understand it, Ravi invited Peter C. to submit poll questions; Peter was "receptive". Oh, and by the way, I contacted Peter C. no less than 4 times last Sunday for his comment. So instead of hearing the "real" story from YOU, I went straight to the source. It's called due diligence. So really, how dare you accuse me of "misrepresenting" anything- I contacted the campaign and they chose not to comment. I would really appreciate you not wasting my time answering obnoxious, condescending accusations. If you have a story to tell, tell it
DeleteIf as promised reform unites behind the front-runner, and the front-runner turns out to be Bhalla, I definitely don't see Giattino's surrogates falling in line. That bitterness and acrimony is just going to get worse.
ReplyDeletethat sounds a lot like mason's surrogates.
DeleteYes, and quickly working their way to qualifying for the same amount of sympathy.
DeleteRomano's idea of a poll seems to be sending 15 year-old girls to Marineview , he has no money to run a proper poll and whatever money he has is probably going into paying his debt
ReplyDeleteYou do like that word "proper" eh, HO? But I think he did run a "proper" poll with a "proper" polling service. If Defusco came out on the bottom, shooting the messenger is not a good next move. But it does seem to line up with what Giattino's surrogates are doing. Maybe you guys could team up.
DeleteDang - even if they did team up, they likely wouldn't have the votes to win mayor. :)
DeletePeople tend to dismiss facts that they don't want to believe or are difficult to bear. I really hope Jen's team commissions their own poll. I wonder though if they would reject their own polling if the results were not what they want it to be. I have heard directly from some that Jen and people speaking for her say that "there will be one reform candidate in the Fall" and that the weaker candidate should withdraw. Let's hold them to it. It looks like polls are making more clear everyone's intuition that we're playing fast and loose with flushing away 8 hard years and more of reform victories and handing the Mayorship and Council away while our opponents sit back and are likely enjoying it all. The fact that Mason is even thinking about joining the race because we don't have it together should be a wake-up call.
ReplyDeleteJen's people can't be responsible for getting the weaker candidate out since they have no control over what Ravi does.
DeleteLet's crunch some data and handicap the field of 4 supposedly major candidates based on what we know now.
ReplyDeleteOne candidate - Bhalla - has strength in the polling, money, a full ticket and the support of the mayor.
One candidate - Romano - has support in the polling but little money no ticket and so far no significant endorsements.
One candidate - Defusco - has money, 2/3 of a ticket, support from councilman Ramos and likely his 1000 or so portable votes, but not much support in the polling.
The last candidate - Giattino - has little support in the polling, little money, and no ticket. But she has the support of councilman Cunnngham and councilwoman Fisher together with a small group of activists who have long considered themselves to be the real reform movement (as contrasted with the somehow less real reform movement led by Mayor Zimmer). She also has an online propaganda tool at her disposal which is attempting to create momentum for her campaign by posting stories about the momentum behind her campaign which so far is not reflected in the polling data.
How this will shake out in the election only time will tell. Perhaps Giattino's attempts to create a self-fulfilling momentum prophesy will succeed and her campaign will eventually really catch fire.
But as we sit here today she has impirically the weakest of the four campaigns.
Couple of quick questions since this "empirically" shows that Councilwoman Giattino is the weakest of the four campaigns. (1) What is the margin of error used on both polls? (2) What is the sample size of both polls? (3) Was a regression analysis used? If so, what is the basis for the regression analysis? Demographics? Voting history? Length of time living in Hoboken? Ward? Party? (4) Similar to the poll questions that appeared on MSV's site, were specific households excluded from the poll (media, volunteering on local campaigns, etc). Not sure if this was Romano's poll or Mason's poll or another person's poll (5) You can see from the above that Romano's poll was taken on the weekend of July 9th. When was Councilman Bhalla's taken? (6) Does Councilman Bhalla's poll include undecideds? Or does it push people into the lean category for a blended NET category like Romano's? If the former, where does "Undecided" % rank in comparison to the leaders. (7) Is the "Strong" voter only or the "NET" polling numbers being reported by sources when it is declared a two person race? For Councilman DeFusco only the "NET" percentage is being "reported" by this source. Logically, the NET number should be larger, but Strong voters really show the core baseline support. (8) And this is my naivete, but why of all the names involved was only Assemblywoman Chapparo's full numbers released? All of the above inform whether this is an accurate poll or polls done to send a message (it can be both of those things -- accurate and sending a message).
DeleteKevin, these are (2) entirely different polls/pollsters.
DeleteIf you have questions about Romano's poll (like why Chaparro is in it) please contact his campaign. I contacted Chaparro yesterday: "Do you have any idea why Stick would have put you in his poll?" Annette relied, "lol. I have no idea." Stick's pollster is Global Strategy Group, an "award-winning" NY firm- my source told me Cory Booker, Steve Fulop, Ray Lesniak and Felix Roque use them, too. Actually, Karen Nason's numbers were released, too. When I told her, she was upset at Romano for releasing them, so I redacted them for her as a courtesy.
Ravi's pollster was RH Associates. He polled last week. My source told me he polled likely voters including undecideds. I have audio- there was no screening for media, political campaigns, etc. I don't know what a "regression analysis" is! I think the polling was just "regular" conventional polling.
Mason polled- her piss boy shared information with Russo who shared information with [redacted].
I also got that poll you're talking about... the pollster asked if I was in media or involved in a political campaign. I told her I was a political blogger, so she said "Thank you, that's all."
Have I been helpful?
Very helpful and helped my curiosity. Thank you and understood on two polls. The HBS article linked below gives a fairly succinct description of regression in terms of stats. The best way to describe regression in terms of polling is incorporating the variable information that may be skewing data (either higher or lower --demographics, timing of the poll, voter history). If you google Nate Silver's 2016 general election forecast, you will find better way of describing it by a much smarter person than me. Each polling organization has their own way of incorporating it. The reason I asked is those factors make the poll a "good" poll or a "bad" poll in terms of the accuracy. Each polling company's has a different model on this and is one of the reasons you saw such inaccuracies on brexit, the Labour elections, and in individual states in 2016.
Deletehttps://hbr.org/2015/11/a-refresher-on-regression-analysis
Glad to hear. Did I tell you enough to determine if these were "good" or "bad" polls?
DeleteKevin, those are terrific questions. You seem to be quite an expert on polling. Obviously the methodologies used by the various campaigns are proprietary so they are unlikely to share that info with you, but you could certainly ask them. Generally local polls follow a pretty standard methodology so data on their efficacy isn't hard to come by. The margin of error as I understand it has to be around 4% or less for the poll to be considered useful. Since all the polls reported on here seem to in large part agree, the margin of error of the polls taken collectively is probably pretty low.
DeleteIf those campaigns that haven't polled don't want to rely on the info available to them as free riders, they are free to design and implement whatever they consider to be a better poll. If their poll is really better they will have better data than their opponents which would be a huge competitive advantage.
My guess is that this "better poll" would be considerably more expensive with little change in the margin of error but that's a cost benefit analysis political campaigns make all the time in their budgets. Pretty much no professionally run campaigns just ignore polling and choose instead to fly blind.
Dismissing real data as meaningless while not developing your own better data is, to be frank, seriously stupid. Knowing a little beats knowing nothing, and the polling data, even if not perfect, is certainly better data than relying on wishful thinking.
Polling is only a single data point for candidates to consider as they evaluate the width of their path to potential victory but putting your head in the sand isn't a data point at all.
Numbers, I'd entertain the facts that it's early and a small town, relatively speaking, as mitigating factors. But every bit of bad news or pushback seems to make Defuscottino (or Giafusco) more entrenched in their positions. It doesn't suggest a nimble operation that will adapt to circumstances. It suggests people who yell at clouds.
DeleteGiafusco, LOL!
DeleteI would not count Roman's blog as an asset. He is an enthusiastic, loud proponent of extreme far right views and conspiracy theories and Trump's number one public cheerleader in Hoboken. While FOX News was disavowing a story about the DNC putting a hit out on a staffer, he kept promoting it. Just look at his Twitter feed. One on one he is a nice guy and well-intentioned and has given his all to whoever he supports which I respect and admire, but I would not want Roman in his 2017 iteration so publicly lobbying for me to split reform. Not a good look at all.
ReplyDeleteAs predicted, Crazy Town is reporting big, bad meanie campaigns are "coming" with big, bad meanie July "polls" to "push" one of the candidates out of the race. Where's the other Reform campaign's poll? Who is stopping them from polling? Who would criticize them for publishing their data?
DeleteWAAAAAAH.
Is the strategy is to scream "unfair" because other campaigns are better organized and following election norms- like polling? GA knows that Ravi and his slate are working their butts off- they hit the street from Day One. Perhaps their WORK and EFFORT is being reflected in the polling.
What really offends me as a woman how Crazy Town coddles- almost infantilizes a smart, strong, intelligent woman like Jen Giattino. I know that Jen can stand the heat, so why does Crazy Town coddle her like a hothouse flower? Male or female, a candidate has to be TOUGH and a FIGHTER, not a COMPLAINER. So, Crazy Town is not doing Giattino any favors.
Word to the wise: HOW a candidate runs their campaign is the FIRST test of their executive ability to run a City. GA is watching all campaigns.
Gee I wonder how organized Ravi's campaign would have been if he hadn't had all that time to gear up his campaign when everyone else thought that the race would be with an incumbent mayor?
DeleteWhy would anyone that posts that she's 'had Jen's back since 2011' criticize Jen's campaign for not being as fully geared up and operational as the one that had a weeks or months (secretive & behind closed doors) head start.
Why would someone that's 'had Jen's back since 2011' expect her to have a paid campaign staff, pre-screened running mates, a concluded poll and a war chest in a time frame of 3 weeks, at most.
hmmm.....
Gee, why would someone declare themselves a mayoral candidate if they don't even have any paid campaign staff, pre-screened running mates, a concluded poll and a war chest? hmmm.....wow.
DeleteIndie, you're as ignorant/nasty as the green-eyed monster you are.
DeleteRavi had a 2 week jump- that's it. Enough to print some lit.
In ONE MONTH SINCE he has rented a campaign HQ, hired staff, interviewed council candidates, done a poll. He also understands that all the accoutrements of running a professional campaign require MONEY, so has fundraised throughout his 8 years in politics. These qualities are called foresight, organizational and campaign management skill and HARD WORK. All attributes the anyone would want in Hoboken's Chief Executive.
In your world, that is a bad, evil thing. All I have heard from your peeps is how "unelectable" and what a "bad executive" Ravi is. Sure doesn't look that way to me.
As for having Jen's back- do a search on my site you MORON. I have published over 2,700 posts since 2010- many advocating for/defending my 6th Ward Councilwoman. Get off your lazy ass and find them.
Finally, don't let the door hit your bum on the way out. Go to Crazy Town.
Does it matter which of the two reform candidates had a head start, has more funds, has XX people on his/her side, has conducted polls, etc.? Look at the elections results in the past and do the math. If there are two reform candidates on the ballot in November, the conclusion is: Romano will be our next mayor.
ReplyDeleteThey are not that smart are they ?
DeleteThis only exemplifies the kind of people the current mayor surrounded with .. if they can't put their differences aside (now) I wonder how did they manage to "work together" for so long .. this town needs a change and will get a change .. in spite of the "Reform" .
I also believe that no one is pulling back .. the first Sikh to run for mayor won't be the first Sikh to back out and Jen won't either otherwise she should have not announced to begin with as she's helped the reform divide already . I'm waiting for her to announce her Slate to see Ravi give the first punch as this seems like a Rock'em Sock'em Robot fight
Oh wow. Sad to see these comments. Both ravi and jen are great people.
ReplyDeletePredictable. I reread old text messages to folks begging not to split Reform. Warning that it was going to be ugly. I was told Ravi was "unelectable", had "no executive skills" and that Zimmer was "bad in math." I kept hearing "unelectable." Over and over. Then it came to pass. SPLIT. I posted several times that Reform needs to unify. I was essentially told to shut up with the "unify" message. So we are left with 2 campaigns. What has made it "worse" is Crazy Town spurious attacks on Ravi and his campaign, which are passively endorsed by the other Reform campaign who is advertising there. They are running an ad-hoc, shoot first, ask questions later style campaign. Really surprised. It's like they're on a mission to take Ravi down.
DeleteWhy are most commenters married to the thought that Romano has no money? He's got a $10,000+ a month pension which is great collateral for a loan if he wants to spend some of his own money on the campaign. All these polling analysts obviously have little experience and are overthinking the results. You need a minimum of 300 voters per ward of those who intend to vote in the election to have a valid poll in Hoboken. Based on past elections, Stick should turn up the front runner in most polls. Don't forget, a united reform element lost to him in the primary election two primaries ago when they were at the apex of their power and with a division in their ranks now it wouldn't seem logical they will beat him now. Of course he did not hire the best consultant available and that could be his downfall.
ReplyDeleteHello, Computer Student! I agree. He's got a nice pension, a freeholder salary, a lucrative business, owns property. Yes, Reform has fucked the pooch this time. We just have to work harder than ever.
DeleteThen Romano should file an ELEC for his mayoral candidature so we know where the money is coming from but more importantly where it goes !!
ReplyDeleteThe only ELEC he has on file is from April 2017 and is for Freeholder .. you know .. that's the problem when you are running for two seats at the same time you tend to forget what goes where ?!! .. sigh
the previous ELECs in file are from 2006 ... yeah you heard that .. 2006 !! How is this possible ?
Regarding him having money .. I'm sure he has some .. living (and taking away ) in a rent controlled building while owning properties all over , driving an official car (he's not paying for ) and the pensions he gets on top of all that ..
FYI, candidature is a copyrighted BT word....
DeleteThe "unelectable" comments are coded racism. Whoever is making them should be out about it.
ReplyDeleteI've lived here a long time. The town has changed, even amongst the old-timers. Ravi won the most votes in the 2009 city council election beating out 11 other candidates, he'll do better now, especially in the Trump era when a highly motivated group of people in town are dying to make a statement about what our country is about (qualifications, merit, substance). People should stop shitting on this town. If Jen is such a great executive her campaign as noted elsewhere would be in better shape by now. It's vitals are less than mediocre a few weeks out.
Tiffanie has outed herself with regard to the "bad a math" comment. That's on video at Jen's fundraiser. Completely obnoxious. Examples? What does that mean? She's been an elected official all of 18 months and this is what she's bringing to the table: Obnoxious public comments about the Mayor, splitting reform, and destroying the Hoboken Democratic Party. It's quite the resume. Look at how Peter has handled the split so far. Nothing obnoxious is coming from him.
The math comment is particularly ridiculous because I get her emails. Subject verb agreement, use of the passive voice, clear and concise communication are all areas for improvement. Again, look at Peter's emails. At least he is staying above board and is clear in communication saying what he wants to say but not more.
Sigh, I know the above is mean. It's also true. As an example, check out Tiffanie's summer transportation delay email or the bizzare "I'm not a bigot" rant or really any of them. Communications is not a strong suit.
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Deletei used to feel i could trust reformers to be stand-up people. not all of them, but the vast majority of them. sadly, looking at some of the shenanigans in this early campaign season, i'm not so sure about that anymore.
Delete